Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-31

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-20) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-20 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-20 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-20 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-20 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-20 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-20)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-20) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 650 (586 – 716) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (12 – 30)
Algeria 172 (147 – 194) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -91 (34 – -19)
Argentina 713 (648 – 784) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.7 – 20)
Armenia 388 (353 – 423) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 20 (12 – 54)
Australia 14 (7 – 20) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 29 (4.9 – -7.6)
Austria 36 (24 – 46) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -50 (14 – -8.8)
Azerbaijan 161 (138 – 184) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (12 – -140)
Bahrain 299 (256 – 336) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 54 (19 – -67)
Bangladesh 1883 (1707 – 2033) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (16 – 28)
Belarus 970 (883 – 1053) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 79 (32 – -160)
Belgium 232 (202 – 263) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -58 (52 – -19)
Benin 14 (5 – 20) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 1.9) 5.8 (2.8 – -47)
Bolivia 455 (421 – 497) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (10 – 28)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 19 (10 – 27) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) 93 (6.8 – -7.9)
Brazil 20459 (18553 – 22334) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (17 – 23)
Bulgaria 18 (9 – 25) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -10 (45 – -4.5)
Cameroon 146 (122 – 175) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -27 (49 – -11)
Canada 1053 (967 – 1135) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -760 (61 – -54)
Central African Republic 55 (42 – 66) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (6.3 – -1700)
Chad 22 (13 – 29) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -42 (10 – -7)
Chile 4359 (4035 – 4684) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (14 – 22)
China 7 (3 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 31 (3.8 – -5.1)
Colombia 1101 (990 – 1218) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 19)
Cote dIvoire 67 (53 – 82) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (6.8 – -2400)
Croatia 9 (0 – 22) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.4) 7.4 (1.9 – -4)
Cuba 14 (6 – 20) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 21 (4.8 – -8.8)
Czechia 54 (39 – 66) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -52 (18 – -11)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 133 (111 – 155) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 22 (10 – -210)
Denmark 55 (39 – 67) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -74 (17 – -12)
Djibouti 133 (111 – 151) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 25 (11 – -65)
Dominican Republic 375 (323 – 422) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (18 – -160)
Ecuador 425 (381 – 461) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -21 (-50 – -14)
Egypt 938 (827 – 1036) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 21)
El Salvador 79 (64 – 95) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 64 (13 – -21)
Equatorial Guinea 60 (45 – 72) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 11 (5.7 – 73)
Estonia 10 (4 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 15 (3.7 – -7.4)
Ethiopia 74 (57 – 87) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.4 (4.6 – 18)
Finland 39 (25 – 50) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -79 (12 – -8.9)
France 765 (624 – 918) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.7 (6.6 – 13)
Gabon 123 (102 – 142) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 17 (8.9 – 260)
Germany 522 (459 – 585) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -120 (53 – -28)
Ghana 156 (134 – 179) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 46 (15 – -45)
Greece 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) 65 (4.5 – -5.3)
Guatemala 255 (225 – 282) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (11 – 130)
Guinea 83 (65 – 98) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 97 (14 – -19)
Guinea Bissau 23 (13 – 30) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -45 (11 – -7.2)
Haiti 114 (91 – 131) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (7.7 – 63)
Honduras 197 (172 – 224) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (13 – -89)
Hungary 26 (15 – 35) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -22 (16 – -6.6)
Iceland 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.4 (0.3 – 4.3) 1.7 (0.96 – -3.8)
India 7231 (6697 – 7787) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (17 – 24)
Indonesia 667 (603 – 727) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 41 (21 – 620)
Iran 2286 (2095 – 2461) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 48 (30 – 120)
Iraq 262 (234 – 289) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.8 (7.1 – 16)
Ireland 61 (44 – 72) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -18 (69 – -7.8)
Israel 43 (28 – 57) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 6.1 (3.6 – 19)
Italy 551 (496 – 603) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -37 (-480 – -19)
Japan 43 (29 – 55) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) 120 (10 – -12)
Kazakhstan 368 (322 – 409) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 21 (13 – 65)
Kenya 89 (72 – 108) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (6.7 – 51)
Kosovo 11 (3 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 85 (4.9 – -5.6)
Kuwait 858 (780 – 935) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -170 (70 – -38)
Kyrgyzstan 53 (37 – 65) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (6.9 – -46)
Latvia 8 (1 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.6) -5200 (4.2 – -4.3)
Lebanon 21 (11 – 30) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -59 (9.2 – -7)
Lithuania 12 (4 – 17) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) 250 (5.8 – -6)
Luxembourg 7 (2 – 12) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.5) -30 (5 – -3.8)
Madagascar 39 (25 – 49) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (6.8 – -26)
Malawi 30 (18 – 40) Increasing 1.9 (1.3 – 2.4) 3.7 (2.4 – 8.3)
Malaysia 86 (68 – 102) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 12 (6.3 – 56)
Maldives 47 (35 – 59) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (7.6 – -28)
Mali 39 (26 – 52) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 14 (5.8 – -34)
Mauritania 35 (25 – 46) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 14 (5.8 – -40)
Mexico 3292 (3010 – 3558) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (17 – 26)
Moldova 154 (128 – 175) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 1800 (21 – -22)
Mongolia 7 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 2) 47 (3 – -3.5)
Morocco 58 (43 – 71) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -15 (1300 – -7.4)
Nepal 100 (80 – 119) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.7 (5.1 – 16)
Netherlands 191 (161 – 215) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 44 (16 – -56)
New Zealand 6 (0 – 14) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.5) 3.7 (1.4 – -4.6)
Niger 9 (2 – 15) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.6) -200 (4.6 – -4.3)
Nigeria 291 (261 – 319) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 62 (21 – -65)
North Macedonia 32 (20 – 41) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 28 (7.2 – -14)
Norway 20 (9 – 28) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 26 (5.7 – -10)
Oman 431 (390 – 467) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (13 – 45)
Pakistan 2110 (1918 – 2298) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 41 (26 – 94)
Palestine 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.7) 33 (3.8 – -4.9)
Panama 319 (269 – 362) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.2 (6.8 – 14)
Paraguay 13 (6 – 19) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) 60 (5.3 – -6.3)
Peru 5393 (4875 – 5944) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (15 – 23)
Philippines 441 (365 – 521) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.8 (6.7 – 13)
Poland 393 (351 – 435) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 57 (22 – -95)
Portugal 267 (222 – 302) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 28 (14 – -810)
Puerto Rico 91 (75 – 107) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 29 (11 – -43)
Qatar 1862 (1690 – 2007) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 27 (20 – 44)
Romania 189 (158 – 215) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 80 (18 – -33)
Russia 9171 (8603 – 9751) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 150 (64 – -460)
Saudi Arabia 2150 (2026 – 2273) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -49 (-120 – -31)
Senegal 78 (61 – 93) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -110 (19 – -14)
Serbia 55 (43 – 68) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -21 (52 – -8.7)
Sierra Leone 34 (23 – 45) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 26 (7.1 – -16)
Singapore 517 (470 – 566) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 240 (34 – -49)
Slovakia 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 12 (2.5 – -4.2)
Somalia 39 (25 – 49) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -65 (12 – -8.7)
South Africa 1339 (1183 – 1468) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (12 – 22)
South Korea 41 (28 – 54) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 8.3 (4.5 – 56)
South Sudan 82 (64 – 94) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.8 (4.8 – 21)
Spain 708 (645 – 777) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 25 (16 – 56)
Sri Lanka 75 (52 – 93) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 6.4 (4.2 – 14)
Sudan 173 (150 – 197) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -82 (32 – -18)
Sweden 578 (500 – 639) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 31 (17 – 160)
Switzerland 20 (12 – 27) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -21 (13 – -5.7)
Tajikistan 199 (174 – 224) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 42 (16 – -61)
Thailand 7 (2 – 12) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.7 – 2.4) 5.4 (2.2 – -10)
Tunisia 6 (1 – 10) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.7 – 2.7) 5.3 (2 – -7.6)
Turkey 1123 (1002 – 1219) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -340 (44 – -34)
Ukraine 460 (390 – 515) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (16 – 270)
United Arab Emirates 815 (750 – 881) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 320 (44 – -59)
United Kingdom 2572 (2410 – 2753) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 220 (42 – -70)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (3 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.8 (27 – -3.8)
United States of America 22239 (20889 – 23849) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 140 (71 – 5600)
Uzbekistan 65 (49 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 41 (11 – -22)
Venezuela 63 (45 – 77) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -91 (17 – -13)
Zambia 33 (23 – 43) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -21 (19 – -6.6)
Zimbabwe 20 (10 – 29) Increasing 1.8 (1.2 – 2.5) 3.8 (2.3 – 12)